Last Update: February 6, 2020

With the Oscars right around the corner, we’re taking a look at the 2020 Best Supporting Actor category and seeing who has the best chance to win. At the outset of the season, this was one of the easier categories to predict. The main contenders announced themselves shortly after their respective films premiered, and things haven’t really changed that much over the past several months. When the Academy’s nominations were announced in January, there were no major surprises. This wasn’t like Best Actor where a couple of the Screen Actors Guild’s nominees got snubbed.

Like most of the acting categories, Best Supporting Actor has a very clear frontrunner that’s far ahead of the pack. There are no guarantees until the Oscars are actually handed out (just ask Glenn Close), but this is a “race” that feels locked up. Based on how the precursors have gone, it’s totally free of any drama and intrigue. Nevertheless, we’re ranking the five nominees in order of most to least likely to win.

In the original version of this list published in October 2019, we had the following top five: Brad Pitt, Al Pacino, Tom Hanks, Joe Pesci, and Christian Bale. We had four of the five nominees correct. Bale ended up campaigning in Best Actor with Matt Damon for Ford v Ferrari and didn’t land a nod.

Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Odds: -3000

Pitt is actually an Oscar winner since he was a producer on 12 Years a Slave, but he doesn’t have any acting Oscars. That is going to change this year. Pitt has swept awards season in this category, delivering a series of entertaining acceptance speeches at the Golden Globes, SAG Awards, and BAFTA Awards. It would be quite unprecedented if he came up short at the Oscars. After three previous acting nominations, the overdue narrative surrounding Pitt is over. It’s his time.

And it will be a deserving win. Pitt delivers one of his best performances in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, effortlessly sliding into the role of stuntman Cliff Booth. Pitt’s so natural in the film, it almost feels like he isn’t acting at time. And despite his supporting billing, many feel he was Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’s MVP. Quentin Tarantino’s love letter to 1960s California isn’t the ironclad pick for Best Picture it was a while back, but Pitt is making sure the movie doesn’t go home empty handed.

Al Pacino - The Irishman

Odds: +4200

It feels like a fruitless exercise ranking the remaining four nominees, but there’s always the slim possibility of an upset. Pacino has as good a chance as any, thanks to his show-stopping turn as Jimmy Hoffa in Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman. Cinephiles know some of Pacino’s choices in the latter stages of his career have been… less than ideal, but he was back in classic form in the crime drama. Playing a larger-than-life personality fit Pacino’s talents well, and he was an absolute joy to watch onscreen. It’s a shame he never collaborated with Scorsese before.

There’s no denying Pacino is great in The Irishman, but he wasn’t good enough for an Oscar win. With Pitt steamrolling the competition, Pacino will have to be content with a nomination. He might have had a better shot at winning if he was still Oscar-less for his career, but his win for Scent of a Woman means Pacino will not be collecting a second Academy Award this year.

Tom Hanks - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Odds: +8000

Hanks hadn’t been nominated for an Oscar since 2000’s Cast Away until this year (he had been passed over multiple times, most notably for Captain Phillips). He is one of the best things about A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, perfectly capturing the spirit and essence of the late great Fred Rogers. Hanks was heartfelt and compassionate in the role, digging deeper below the surface to make Rogers feel like a well-rounded character, not the one-dimensional caricature the cynics imagined he was.

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood was a popular pick for a Best Picture nomination in the early part of 2019, but it never became a true contender across the board. Hanks is the film’s lone nomination, which puts him at a bit of a disadvantage. To make up that kind of ground, he needed to be the one to sweep the season, and he didn’t win any of the main precursors. Perhaps one day Hanks will get a third Oscar, but this year he’ll have to watch Pitt take it home.

Joe Pesci - The Irishman

Odds: +2800

Coming out of retirement to work with his longtime collaborator Scorsese again, Pesci didn’t miss a beat. In The Irishman, the one-time Oscar winner plays Russell Bufalino, a mafioso who recruits Frank Sheeran (Robert De Niro) into his criminal operation. Pesci made a name for himself playing loose cannons for Scorsese, like Tommy DeVito in Goodfellas and Nicky Santoro in Casino. Fortunately, Bufalino is a complete departure from those volatile characters. The Irishman reviews remarked Pesci is very reserved in the role, showing a different side of his acting range. Much like Pacino, it’s the best work he’s done in a very long time and the Golden Globes and SAG have already recognized him for his efforts - though he obviously lost the Globe.

Pesci may find himself in the same field as his co-star come Oscar Sunday, though the two will likely have to be content with the nomination. There is a danger the two end up splitting votes with each other (Irishman fans will have a hell of a time figuring out who to go for), and Pitt is also the clear frontrunner in this category this year. If Pesci hadn’t won for Goodfellas, he’d have a stronger case for securing the trophy this year, but he’s going to fall short.

Anthony Hopkins - The Two Popes

Odds: +12000

Netflix had a ton on their plate this awards season, illustrating how far they’ve come in a relatively short period of time. While The Two Popes was never as big of a contender as The Irishman or Marriage Story, it still garnered enough support to come through in the acting categories. Jonathan Pryce and Hopkins did excellent work in the film, emerging ahead of the others to secure the fifth spot in their respective categories.

Hopkins was nominated for a Golden Globe, but was snubbed by SAG, which hurts (not that it matters much this year anyway). It’s true there have been Best Supporting Actor winners in the past without a SAG nomination (Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained comes to mind), but usually those are for films that were major contenders across the board. The Two Popes was left off the Best Picture lineup, so Hopkins is bound to fall short.

More: 2020 Best Actor Predictions